“Figures don’t lie, but liars can figure.” Have you ever
heard someone use that quote? Let me
alter it a bit to: “Statistics don’t lie, but people with an agenda can
misinterpret statistics.” Basically, statistical analysis is a method to
extract relationships from confusing information. It is not always easy,
though, and error of interpretation can always sneak in, either through error
or intent. Let me give you an example.
Early in my career I was working on a project studying the role
of Phosphorus in eutrophication of a lake. (Eutrophication is a term used for
the process of a clear water lake gradually being taken over by vegetation,
eventually becoming a bog.) At one point we collected lake bottom samples along
a transect from shallow to deep water, hoping this would provide some answers. Instead,
it created confusion. Everything we measured was related to water depth. This
made absolutely no sense … until we realized it was mechanical. All chemistry,
instead, was related to organic matter, and through wave action that was
gradually moved from shallow to deep water.
Today we are bombarded with similar statistical analysis
error of interpretation – and it is intentional as a method of financial gain.
Is Carbon Dioxide CO2 really causing the Earth to rapidly heat?
Let’s analyze this interpretation. First of all, our “stove” is the sun, and
the amount of heat reaching the Earth is directly related to solar surface
activity. That activity is known to undergo high/low cycles. In the 1970s
activity was low and everyone was talking about global cooling. There was fear
we were headed into a new glacial period, which would have serious impact upon
society and the ability to sustain global population.
The argument is that solar activity does not adequately
explain the current temperature trend, so it must be something else. The
decision is that the “something else” must be CO2, since that has
been increasing. Wait a minute! What is the Specific Heat Capacity (SHC) of CO2?
0.844 – 0.655, depending on how it is measured. (SHC is the amount of heat
required to heat one gram one degree Celsius – expressed as Joules of heat)
There happens to be something else in the atmosphere – water! What is the SHC
of water? 4.184 Joules per gram per degree C. There are also other gasses in
the atmosphere, and some have higher SHC than CO2. For example, the
SHC of Methane is about 2.3. While there is much less methane in the
atmosphere, it has increased from about 1.6 ppm in 1980 to 1.85 in 2017 –
faster than the increase of CO2. Nitrous Oxide also has a higher SHC
(0.88), but it is present in even lower concentration, so its contribution
would be even less important.
The concept that we live in a “global greenhouse” means
something in the atmosphere traps solar heat during the day and controls loss
of heat during the night, thus moderating surface temperature. The current
concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is about 0.04%, or 400ppm.
The concentration of water is variable, ranging from possibly 1% in polar
regions to as much as 4% over tropical oceans. Now, which is going to be the
better “greenhouse gas” – one with an SHC of 0.8, present as about 0.04% of the
atmosphere, or one with an SHC of 4.1, present from 1 to 4% of the atmosphere?
Have you ever walked into shade during a hot day and
immediately felt cooler? Have you ever wondered why a desert can be so hot
during the day, but freezing at night? Carbon dioxide is certainly not the
reason! Water is the answer – or, better, the lack of water in the atmosphere. Heat
comes from the sun in the radiant form, so when we walk into shade we are no
longer receiving the solar heat. Water in the atmosphere adsorbs a lot of that
heat, so normally moderates surface temperature. No atmospheric water means
hotter surface. Likewise, if there is little atmospheric water, there is nothing
to prevent radiant cooling during the night. The same principle applies in
early autumn when a cloudless sky often means frost, while cloud cover means
one more night escaping a frost.
When there is abundant water in the air, the “greenhouse
effect” becomes operative. The water continues to collect the solar energy, but
atmospheric water content is too variable for finding any relationship to
surface temperature. That brings us back
to our original comments on statistics and the ability to extract relationships
from confusing information.
When atmospheric data is carefully examined, it is obvious
that CO2 has been increasing, and world population is also
increasing. This is obvious and understandable. Every time we burn some kind of
carboniferous material, whether it be wood, coal, natural gas, gasoline, or any
other burnable carbon containing fuel, two gaseous products - CO2
and H2O – are released into the atmosphere. Thus, the amount of CO2 and H2O
entering the atmosphere from human activity is logically related to human
population. Problems arise, however, in attempting to develop any kind of
relationship between these gasses and Earth surface temperatures, which have been
increasing. Atmospheric water content should logically be related to surface
temperature, but any kind of statistical relationship is compounded by the
global water cycle that makes human existence possible in the first place.
Then one individual had a “eureka moment!” If the world
could be convinced that increasing global surface temperature is related to
human activity, there is much money to be made. While we put far more H2O
than CO2 into the atmosphere, the natural global water cycle makes
any statistical relationship impossible. Conveniently, CO2 in the
atmosphere has also been increasing, and a plot of increasing temperature as a
function of atmospheric CO2 looks convincing. The campaign has been
unbelievable successful and people around the world are convinced that
increasing temperature is the result of human activities. But is this logical?
While less studied than the water cycle, the earth also has
a carbon cycle which makes existence possible. Every living organism on earth, both plant and animal, obtains
energy through oxidation of carbon compounds to form CO2 – i.e.
respiration. If there were not a method to reverse the reaction the CO2
level in the atmosphere would become toxic and all living organisms would die.
Fortunately, plants are capable of photosynthesis, using solar energy to break
the C-O bonds and restore O2 in the atmosphere, and they produce
more O2 during the day than they use at night. In this way the
global CO2 level is maintained well below the toxic concentration.
There are two areas of the earth primarily important in
maintaining adequate O2 and safe CO2 levels in the
atmosphere -this being the tropical rain forests and ocean algae. What is
happening in these areas? A significant amount of the tropical rain forests of
the world are being cleared for wood and kept clear for agricultural purposes. The
ocean has become the final recipient of our human wastes, both chemical and solid.
As a result, the algal population has been affected. We might ask, then, is the
increase in atmospheric CO2 really a function of our increasing
energy production, or is it the result of the global carbon cycle being disrupted?
Likewise, is the current increase in average surface temperature really caused by an increased CO2 in the
atmosphere, or are the two observations unrelated but conveniently used for
financial convenience? Logic tells us it may well be the latter, and any
greenhouse effect is really a function of atmospheric water vapor abetted by increased
solar activity.
People have become so convinced of “global warming” being
the result of increased atmospheric CO2, though, that no politician
looking toward being re-elected would ever dare suggest this attribution is in
error. Besides many of them are financially benefiting in supporting the idea.
You often hear, “the science is settled.” This not a scientist’s statement, but
a politician’s – even if made by a person with scientist credentials. Science
is never “settled.” All scientific research
must be based on the positive theories – A is the result of B. This means that one valid research study showing this
statement cannot be true means the theory must be discarded and replaced by a
better one. There are a number of points upon which the current “settled
science” can be questioned.
What about the scientists who support the theory? The answer
involves money again. Research funds are available for studies on the effect of
increasing temperature on . . . Scientists
are always looking for research support. Few are going to attack this
opportunity. When opportunities like this arise, the game is to figure out how
you can twist your favorite research program to fit under the objectives of the
granting agency. Were I not retired and no longer looking for research support,
I must admit that I could be among the scientists doing “atmospheric research”
in support of my real Soil Chemistry research interests.